Executive Summary and Key Findings

Forced Outage as the Primary Reason Behind Yellow/Red Alerts

Plant outages result in a power outage or power interruption when they trigger a yellow or red alert in the transmission grid. A yellow alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s contingency requirement. A red alert status is issued when the power supply is insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement. 

From 2019-2023, the number of incidents of forced outages is significantly greater than maintenance and planned outages, this indicates that forced outages are the primary reason behind yellow and red alert triggers from 2019 to 2023 that mostly lead to power interruptions. 

System-Related Issues as Main Culprit Behind Forced Outages

From 2019 to 2023, most power plants experienced outages due to system functionality issues. These outages are attributed to  boiler issues, fuel feeder issues, compressor issues, furnace temperature and pressure issues, turbine issues, water leaks, and a host of other issues throughout the power plant’s facilities and processes. Conversely, the identification of fuel-related factors, notably restrictions in gas supply, emphasizes the necessity of enhancing energy security through greater reliance on domestic renewable energy sources, rather than increasing dependence on imported fossil fuels.

Fossil Fuels as the Usual Suspects 

Unsurprisingly, coal, fossil gas, and oil-based power plants topped the list with the highest incidents of forced outages from 2019 to 2023. Examining recorded outages from 2019 to 2023, it has been observed that fossil fuels are the usual suspects when it comes to forced outages. Units of 1) Sem Calaca Coal Power Plant, 2) San Buenaventura Power Plant, 3) KEPCO Ilijan Gas Power Plant, 4) MPPCL Coal Power Plant, 5.)  Sta. Rita Gas Power Plant, 6) SMC Limay Coal Power Plant, 7) Panay Energy Development Corporation Coal Power Plant, and 8) TLI Pagbilao Coal Power Plant have been consistently undergoing forced outages since 2019 with at least 10 incidents of forced outages each. 

Unreliability of Relatively New Fossil Fuel Power Plants 

Age does not matter in the performance reliability of fossil fuel power plants as relatively new coal power plants that have been operating for less than a decade contribute significantly to the country’s energy supply woes. Unit 3 of San Miguel Power Corp’s MPPCL Coal Power Plant already went on a 118-day forced outage due to repairs. MPPCL Unit 3 is merely three years old. The same power plant also accounts for 25 of the annual forced outages from 2019-2022. MERALCO’s four-year-old San Buenaventura Coal Power Plant did not fare any better. It consistently went on forced outages every year from 2019-2023 and accounts for 26 recorded forced outages. 

San Miguel Corporation, Aboitiz Power, First Gen, and Dmci Holdings as Main Drivers of Forced Outage

Amidst 15 to 21 April 2024 outages and WESM price spikes, the separate units of Sta. Rita Gas Power Plant was either on forced outage or injecting supply into the WESM. Moreover, power firms that owned power plants that went on a forced outage, could still potentially profit from the circumstance as the other power plants they own, or are affiliated with, are injecting supply into the WESM during the period. These power firms that may still have profited during the 15 to 21 April 2024 are SMC Global Holdings Power Corp, the power arm of San Miguel Corporation, Aboitiz Power, and First Gen

The usual power firms such as AboitizPower, First Gen, and DMCI Holdings have their own fair share of young power plants that consistently go on forced outages. AboitizPower’s four-year-old Therma Visayas Coal Power Plant Units 1 & 2 went on outage every year from 2020-2023 and accounted for a total of 26 forced outages. First Gen’s seven-year-old San Gabriel Gas Power Plant went on outage every year from 2010-2021 and accounted for 24 forced outages. It notably went on a 162-day forced outage in 2021 due to tripping. Finally, DMCI Holding’s seven-year-old SLPGC Coal Power Plant Units 1 & 2 went also on outage every year from 2019-2021 and accounted for a total of 35 forced outages.